Bitcoin (BTC) miners may have already triggered a “surrender event”, a new analysis has concluded.
In a June 24 update, Julio Moreno, principal analyst at on-chain data firm CryptoQuant, hinted that the BTC price bottom may now be due.
BTC price bottom “usually” follows miner capitulation
Miners have seen a drastic change in circumstances since March 2020, going from unprecedented profitability to compressing their margins.
The drop to $17,600 – 70% below November all-time highs for BTC/USD, has hit some players hard, data now shows, with miner wallets sending large amounts of coins to exchanges.
This, CryptoQuant suggests, precedes the final stages of Bitcoin selling off more broadly in line with historical precedent.
“Our data demonstrates that a miner capitulation event has occurred, which has typically preceded market lows in previous cycles,” Moreno summarized.
Miner sales have been closely watched this month, with the @Bitcoin Twitter account even describing the situation as miners “emptied of their coins”.
—Bitcoin (@Bitcoin) June 18, 2022
“For miners, it’s time to decide whether to stay or go,” CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju added in a Twitter thread last week.
The situation is precarious, but the majority of miners remain active, as evidenced by network fundamentals which are only slightly down from all-time highs of over 30 trillion.
Mixed signals regarding buyer interest
When it comes to other big BTC holders, however, the picture looks less clear.
Related: ‘Foolish’ to Deny Bitcoin Price Can Drop Below $10,000 – Analysis
After whales bought nearly $19,000 in cash, CryptoQuant’s Ki this week announced the arrival of “new” high-volume entities.
Outflows from major U.S. exchange Coinbase, he noted, hit their highest level since 2013.
It’s time to welcome new #Bitcoins whales.
There are a lot of inbound/outbound whale trades lately, but actually nothing has changed on the BTC reserve in all trades.https://t.co/Ptw2mg9YuR pic.twitter.com/s697lSvw27
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) June 23, 2022
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital nonetheless reiterated his doubts about the strength of overall buyer volume, arguing that sellers were conversely always leading market moves.
Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (MA), a key support level during previous bear markets, has yet to generate significant interest from buyers, despite the spot price around $2,000. below.
“The current volume on the buy side of BTC after the extreme sell volume peak is still below the follow-on volume levels of the 2018 bear market buyers at the 200-week MA. Not to mention the March 2020 buy-side follow-up,” he said. Told Twitter followers.
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