Could Applied Materials stock bounce after losing 16% last month?

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Applied Materials Inc. stock (NASDAQ
NDAQ
: AMAT) is down 16% in the past month, lagging sharply behind the S&P 500, which itself fell 9% over the period. If you look at the change over the past week and also over ten days, the stock has bounced back -2.5% and -2.4%, both times worse than the broader markets. AMAT’s most recent earnings in the third quarter of ’22 saw revenue rise from $6.2 billion in Q3 ’21 to $6.52 billion in Q3 ’22, driven primarily by increased sales in the semiconductor systems segment. However, with rising COGS and operating expenses, the company reported operating income of $1.92 billion, down $2.01 billion for Q3 ’21. As a result, the company’s net income declined and earnings per share came in lower at $1.86, compared to $1.89 in Q3 ’21.

Are the Applied Materials stock now intended to continue its underperformance or can we expect a recovery? We believe there is a strong 71% chance of AMAT stock rising in the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the past ten years. See our analysis on AMAT Stock Chance of Rise. For more information on the company’s historical returns and comparison with peers, see: Applied materials Stock return.

Twenty-one days: AMAT -16%, vs. S&P 500 -9%; Undersized market

(2% probability event; 71% probability of increase in the next 21 days)

  • AMAT stock lost 16% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 9%
  • A change of -16% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 2% probability event, occurring 55 times out of 2,514 in the past 10 years
  • Of these 55 cases, the stock has seen a positive move 39 times in the next twenty-one trading days
  • This points to a 71% chance the stock will rise in the next twenty-one trading days

Ten days: AMAT -2.4%, vs. S&P 500 -1.7%; Undersized market

(30% probability event; 55% probability of increase in the next 10 days)

  • AMAT stock lost 2.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 1.7%
  • A change of -2.4% or more over ten trading days is a 30% probability event, which has happened 765 times out of 2,515 in the past 10 years
  • Of these 765 cases, the stock has seen a positive move 422 times in the next ten trading days
  • This points to a 55% chance the stock will rise in the next ten trading days

Five days: AMAT -2.5%, vs. S&P 500 -2.3%; Undersized market

(19% probability event; 58% probability of increase in the next five days)

  • AMAT stock lost 2.5% over a five-day trading period ending 9/20/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell 2.3% over the period.
  • A change of -2.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 19% probability event, occurring 489 times out of 2,515 in the past 10 years
  • Of these 489 cases, the stock has seen a positive move 282 times in the next five trading days
  • This points to a 58% chance the stock will rise in the next five trading days

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