Etsy Stock Surpassed Consensus in Q2, Now What?

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Etsy stock (NASDAQ
NDAQ
: ETSY) is up 12% in the past week, outperforming the S&P 500 (up 4.4%). Furthermore, the same trend was observed in the last ten days (19% versus 4%) and one month (31% versus 7%).

The company provides an online marketplace for unique and creative goods. It released its second quarter results last week, outperforming consensus estimates of revenue and earnings. Despite the difficult macroeconomic outlook, total revenues grew 11% yoy to $585.1 million. It was driven by 11% growth in the market segment and a 9% increase in service revenues. The market segment mainly benefited from an increase in seller transaction costs, partly offset by lower gross merchandise sales. Furthermore, the key metrics – active buyers and active sellers – saw 4% and 41.5% year-over-year growth. That said, the company’s net income declined 26% yoy to $73 million, primarily due to higher product development costs. Overall, better-than-expected earnings were the main reason for positive investor sentiment towards the stock.

Will ETSY shares now rise further, or can we expect some correction? We believe there’s a 57% chance of Etsy’s stock rising in the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the past seven years. See our analysis on Etsy Stock Opportunity to Rise

Twenty-one days: ETSY 31%, vs. S&P 500 7%; Outperformed market

(7% probability event; 57% probability of increase in the next 21 days)

  • Etsy stock 31% won over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) increase of 7%
  • A change of 31% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 7% probability event that occurred 131 out of 1,816 times in the past seven years
  • Of these 131 cases, the stock has seen a positive move 75 times in the next twenty-one trading days
  • This points to a 57% chance that the stock will rise in the next twenty-one trading days

Ten days: ETSY 19%, vs. S&P500 4%; Outperformed market

(8% probability event; 48% probability of increase in the next 10 days)

  • Etsy stock increased 19% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) gain of 4%
  • A change of 19% or more over ten trading days is an 8% probability event, which has occurred 145 times out of 1827 in the past seven years
  • Of these 145 cases, the stock has seen 70 positive moves in the next ten trading days
  • This indicates a 48% chance the stock will rise in the next ten trading days

Five days: ETSY 12%, vs. S&P 500 4.4%; Outperformed market

(9% probability event; 52% probability of increase in the next five days)

  • Etsy stock 12% won over a five-day trading period ended 08/02/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) increase of 4.4%
  • A change of 12% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 9% probability event, which has occurred 157 times out of 1832 in the past seven years
  • Of these 157 cases, the stock has seen positive move 82 times in the next five trading days
  • This points to a 52% chance the stock will rise in the next five trading days

See how Etsy Peers rate on metrics that matter. Other useful comparisons for companies in different sectors can be found at Pear Comparisons.

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