Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $22,000 on July 18 and Ether (ETH) traded above $1,500 on July 18, indicating that bulls are gradually returning to the cryptocurrency markets. This pushed the total crypto market cap above $1 trillion for the first time since June 13, raising hopes that the worst of the bear market is behind us.
Another positive sign is that according to crypto intelligence firm Glassnode, more than 80% of the total Bitcoin supply, denominated in the US dollar, has been dormant for at least three months. During previous bear markets, such an event preceded the end of the bear phase.
However, a report from Grayscale Investments expresses a different view. It suggests that the current bear market in Bitcoin started in June 2022 and if history repeats itself, the bear phase could continue for another 250 days.
Can buyers maintain their momentum at higher levels or will bears continue to sell during rallies? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
After hesitating for two days near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,986), Bitcoin made a decisive move higher on July 18. This upward move has broken above the symmetrical triangle resistance line, indicating a possible trend reversal.
The 20-day EMA is flat, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen in the positive territory, indicating momentum is in favor of buyers. The bulls will now try to overcome the barrier at $23,363.
If the price drops from this level but bounces off the triangle breakout level, it will suggest buying at lower levels. That could increase the chances of a break above $23,363. The pair could then rise towards the pattern target of $28,171.
Conversely, if the price fails to stay above the triangle, it indicates that the bears are aggressively defending the above-ground zone between the triangle’s resistance line and $23,363. That could keep the couple in the triangle for a few more days.
Ether broke and closed above air resistance at $1,280 on July 16, completing the ascending triangle pattern. don’t relent.
The buyers resumed their purchase on July 18, pushing the price above $1,500. This suggests the start of a new uptrend. The ETH/USDT pair could rise towards the $1,700 overhead resistance where the bears could pose a strong challenge.
If the next correction is held during the 20-day EMA ($1,234), it suggests that sentiment has shifted from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That could boost prospects for a break above $1,700.
This positive picture could be negated in the near term if the price falls and dips below the 20-day EMA. That could pull the pair toward the triangle’s support line.
BNB surged above the 20-day EMA ($238) on July 14 and took the overhead hurdle at the 50-day EMA ($247) on July 16. The bears tried to push the price back below the 50-day SMA on July 17, but the bulls held out.
The BNB/USDT pair resumed its upward movement on July 18, suggesting it may have bottomed out at $183. The 20-day EMA has started to surface and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that bulls are in control.
If the price remains above the 50-day SMA, the pair could rise as high as $300 and then try to move up towards $350. This level is likely acting as a stiff resistance.
This positive image could be negated in the near term if the price falls and moves below the 20-day EMA. That could pull the pair to $211.
Ripple (XRP) broke above the downtrend line on July 16, but the bears halted the relief rally near the 50-day SMA ($0.35). The sellers tried to push the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.34) on July 17, but the bulls didn’t budge and bought the dip.
The 20-day EMA has gradually started to emerge and the RSI has jumped into the positive zone, pointing to bulls advantage.
The XRP/USDT pair took the overhead hurdle at the 50-day SMA on July 18, invalidating the bearish descending triangle pattern. If the bulls maintain the price above the 50-day SMA, the pair could gain momentum and climb as high as $0.45.
To invalidate this bullish opinion, the bears will have to pull the pair back into the triangle. Such a move could trap the aggressive bulls and push the pair towards the important USD 0.30 support.
After struggling to push Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.46), the bulls finally succeeded on July 18. The price has reached the 50-day SMA ($0.50) which could act as a strong resistance.
The RSI in the positive area indicates that momentum is favorable for buyers. If bulls push the price above the 50-day SMA, the ADA/USDT pair could rise as high as $0.60 and then jump into the stiff overhead resistance of $0.70.
Alternatively, if bulls fail to hold the price above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest bears continue to sell aggressively during rallies. The pair could then fall back to the critical support zone between $0.44 and $0.40.
Solana (SOL) broke above the symmetrical triangle pattern on July 16, indicating that the uncertainty has resolved in favor of buyers. The bears tried to get the price back into the triangle on July 17, but the bulls held out.
The SOL/USDT pair is trying to rise above the USD 43 immediate resistance. If that happens, the pair could rise to the psychological level of $50. This level can act as a hurdle, but if crossed, the upward move could reach $60.
Conversely, if the price drops from $43 and moves below the moving averages, the pair could fall towards the support line. A break and close below this level could indicate bears are back in the game.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is trying to hit a higher low at $0.06 and the bulls are trying to push the price above the stiff overhead resistance near the 50-day SMA ($0.07).
If they succeed, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise towards $0.08. This is an important level to watch as a break and close above it could set the stage for a rally to $0.09 and then $0.10.
This positive picture could be invalidated in the near term if the price falls from current levels and dips below the July 13 intraday low. That could send the pair plunging towards the critical USD 0.05 level.
Related: Bitcoin price approaches critical 200-week moving average as Ethereum hits $1.5K. touches
Polkadot (DOT) broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($7.08) on July 16, but the bears pulled the price back below the level on July 17. This tough battle between the bulls and the bears was resolved in favor of the buyers on July 18.
The 20-day EMA is leveling off and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating that selling pressure may be easing. The bulls will have to push and hold the price above the 50-day SMA ($7.79) to gain the upper hand. If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could rise towards $10.
On the contrary, if the price falls from current levels, it suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the 50-day SMA. The pair could then be stuck between $6.36 and the 50-day SMA for a few days.
Polygon (MATIC) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($0.55) on July 13 and rose above overhead resistance at $0.63. This completed the bullish rising triangle pattern.
The MATIC/USDT pair gained momentum and reached the $0.95 pattern target on July 18. The sharp rally of recent days has pushed the RSI into overbought territory and the pair is near the psychological level of $1. This points to a possible near-term consolidation or correction.
The first downside is the 20-day EMA ($0.63). If the price bounces back from this level, it suggests that bulls will continue to buy on dips. The pair could then attempt a rally towards the 200-day SMA ($1.25). This bullish opinion may become invalid on a break below USD 0.63.
Avalanche (AVAX) has broken out above overhead resistance at $21.35, signaling that the bullish triangle pattern has been completed. This increases the likelihood of a trend reversal.
The 20-day EMA ($19.56) and the 50-day SMA ($19.79) are close to completing a bullish crossover and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating an advantage for buyers. If bulls keep the price above $21.35, the AVAX/USDT pair could start another upward move. The triangle breakout pattern target is $29.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price falls and moves below the 50-day SMA, it will suggest bears continue to sell aggressively at higher levels. That could pull the pair toward the support line.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of TSWT. Every investment and trading move involves risks. You should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by: HitBTC stock exchange.