What’s next for Flowserve stock after a 21% drop in one month?


Flowserve stock (NYSE: FLS), a manufacturer of pumps and valves, has seen a 21% drop in a month, underperforming the broader S&P500 index, down 10%. The trap for Flowserve
, in particular can be attributed to the recent press release stating a $0.18 to $0.22 impact on third quarter EPS due to specific issues. The company implemented a new enterprise resource planning system in the third quarter, but a number of challenges impacted volumes during the implementation of the new system. In addition, an increase in operating expenses is also expected to weigh on earnings in the third quarter. This update did not go down well with investors, as evidenced by the share price correction.

With the FLS stock down 21% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory or is it imminent to rise? Judging by historical achievements, there is: a high probability of an increase in FLS stock the coming month. A move of -21% or more in a month for Flowserve has happened 27 times in the last ten years. Of those cases, 22 resulted in a rise in Flowserve’s stock over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historic pattern reflects a 22 out of 27 or an 81% chance of a rise in FLS stock in the coming month. See our analysis of Flowserve Stock Chance of upside for more details.

Calculating ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using data from the last ten years

  • After a movement of -14% or more for five days, the proportion increased in 50% of cases in the following five days.
  • After a movement of -10% or more for ten days, the proportion increased in 53% of cases in the following ten days.
  • After a move of -21% or more over a twenty-one day period, the proportion increased in 81% of cases in the following twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a marginally higher probability of an increase in FLS stock in the next five and ten days and a much greater probability of an increase in the next month.

Flowserve Return (Recent) Peer Comparison

  • Five-day return: AQUA highest at -1.8%; FLS lowest at -13.6%
  • Ten-day return: HAYW highest at 4.5%; FLS lowest at -10.5%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: AQUA Highest at -8.7%; FLS lowest at -21.1%

While Flowserve inventory looks like it may see higher levels, it’s helpful to see how Flowserve’s colleagues rate on metrics that matter. Other valuable comparisons for companies in different sectors can be found at Pear Comparisons.

With higher inflation and rising interest rates, among other things, the share of FLS has fallen by 10% this year. Can it go down even more? See how low Flowserve stocks can go by comparing the decline in past market crashes. Here’s a performance breakdown of all stocks in past market crashes.

In addition, the Covid-19 crisis has created many price discontinuities that can provide attractive trading opportunities. For example, you will be amazed at how counterintuitive stock valuation is CSX vs Amkor.

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