What’s next for Johnson Controls Stock?


Johnson Controls stock (NYSE: JCI) saw an 8% drop in one month, compared to a 10% drop in the broader S&P500 index. There are a number of factors behind this decline for JCI stock. First, rising interest rates and the economic slowdown do not bode well for construction-related demand. Second, the company’s cut in its earnings forecast of $0.27 (mid-range) for the full fiscal year 2022 due to supply chain disruptions did not sit well with investors. These factors, coupled with weakness in the broader markets, weighed on JCI stock.

With JCI stock down 8% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory or is a rise imminent? Judging by historical achievements, there is: a high probability of an increase in JCI stock the coming month. A move of -8% or more in a month for Johnson Controls
has occurred 242 times in the last ten years. Of those cases, 155 resulted in a rise in Johnson Controls stock over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historic pattern reflects 155 out of 242 or a 64% chance of JCI stock rising in the coming month. See our analysis of Johnson checks stock opportunity for gains for more details.

Calculating ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using data from the last ten years

  • After a movement of -8% or more for five days, the proportion increased in 50% of cases in the following five days.
  • After a movement of -1% or more for ten days, the proportion increased in 59% of cases in the following ten days.
  • After a movement of -8% or more over a twenty-one day period, the proportion increased in 64% of cases in the following twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests an equal probability of an increase or decrease in JCI stock in the next five days, but a greater probability of an increase in the next ten days and the following month.

Johnson Controls Return (Recent) Peer Comparison

  • Five-day return: CMI highest at -2.0%; JCI lowest at -7.7%
  • Ten-day return: TT highest at 1.6%; HON lowest at -4.4%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: TT Highest at -5.5%; HON lowest at -12.3%

While Johnson Controls stocks look like they may see higher levels, it’s helpful to see how Johnson checks colleagues rate on metrics that matter. Other valuable comparisons for companies in different sectors can be found at Pear Comparisons.

In addition, the Covid-19 crisis has created many price discontinuities that can provide attractive trading opportunities. For example, you will be amazed at how counter-intuitive stock valuation is Novanta vs. Abbott.

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